Tariffs: What Effects Could They Have on Fuel Prices? What Can Be Done to Mitigate Risk?
Apr 09, 2025
We’d love to say we have a magic 8-ball that could tell us whether fuel prices will rise or fall due to the new tariffs being implemented on Canada and Mexico—but unfortunately, that’s not the case. All we can do is examine what has happened so far and compare it to similar situations in the past. So, what can you do to mitigate risk when it comes to purchasing fuel?
We anticipate that prices may increase due to the tariffs potentially slowing fuel imports from Canada and Mexico. However, what we’ve seen since the announcement of the tariffs has been the opposite of our expectations. In the first few days following the announcement, prices declined significantly. Over the past weekend, they appear to have stabilized.
There’s a possibility that prices could drop slightly overall if the tariffs negatively impact the economy. A slowdown in the economy could lead to decreased fuel demand—and in turn, lower fuel prices. We saw a similar situation during the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. As the economy slowed, so did fuel demand, resulting in lower prices.
Based on what has happened so far and looking at historical trends, there’s a chance that fuel prices could decrease slightly due to the tariffs. Still, there is a lot to consider when trying to determine what fuel prices will do, and no one has an exact answer. Staying informed and considering the broader economic impact is key to understanding fuel pricing.
Contracting your fuel is one of the best ways to protect yourself from price fluctuations. Buying fuel while prices are dropping is generally a smart move. However, one thing to avoid is trying to “find the bottom.” No one can predict the lowest point with certainty, and waiting too long could cause you to miss a good buying opportunity. Prices can drop quickly, only to rebound just as fast—or faster. When that happens, the opportunity to buy at a favorable price is gone.
You don’t need to purchase all your fuel at once when prices are falling. Instead, consider laying in contracts and buying gradually. This approach helps mitigate your risk.
With the tariffs set to take effect on April 5, 2025, the big question remains: What impact will they have on the economy and fuel prices? The truth is, we don’t know for sure. But we do know current market conditions and how similar situations have played out in the past. There are opportunities available now to contract fuel and reduce your exposure to unpredictable price swings.
We anticipate that prices may increase due to the tariffs potentially slowing fuel imports from Canada and Mexico. However, what we’ve seen since the announcement of the tariffs has been the opposite of our expectations. In the first few days following the announcement, prices declined significantly. Over the past weekend, they appear to have stabilized.
There’s a possibility that prices could drop slightly overall if the tariffs negatively impact the economy. A slowdown in the economy could lead to decreased fuel demand—and in turn, lower fuel prices. We saw a similar situation during the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. As the economy slowed, so did fuel demand, resulting in lower prices.
Based on what has happened so far and looking at historical trends, there’s a chance that fuel prices could decrease slightly due to the tariffs. Still, there is a lot to consider when trying to determine what fuel prices will do, and no one has an exact answer. Staying informed and considering the broader economic impact is key to understanding fuel pricing.
Contracting your fuel is one of the best ways to protect yourself from price fluctuations. Buying fuel while prices are dropping is generally a smart move. However, one thing to avoid is trying to “find the bottom.” No one can predict the lowest point with certainty, and waiting too long could cause you to miss a good buying opportunity. Prices can drop quickly, only to rebound just as fast—or faster. When that happens, the opportunity to buy at a favorable price is gone.
You don’t need to purchase all your fuel at once when prices are falling. Instead, consider laying in contracts and buying gradually. This approach helps mitigate your risk.
With the tariffs set to take effect on April 5, 2025, the big question remains: What impact will they have on the economy and fuel prices? The truth is, we don’t know for sure. But we do know current market conditions and how similar situations have played out in the past. There are opportunities available now to contract fuel and reduce your exposure to unpredictable price swings.