Evening Comments (RJ O'Brien)

Evening Grain Comments - June 24th, 2025

Corn

More risk-off today as grain markets continued to slide. CN made another new contract low of 415 during the session before settling down 3 to 416’2, CZ at 429 just above the 428 contract lows last December. Early morning export flash of 554k mt 25/26 corn to Mexico was announced with another 75k mt of 26/27 wasn’t enough to support the market though it did trade to its daily high shortly after market re-open. Basis in the west has firmed on thinner markets, Grp 3 traded +12n for July and dry mills across space are giving pushes and/or opening up July contracts ahead of next week’s holiday hours. PNW trading near +130, spot western feedlot values trading low- to mid-120s with some volume stacked up at the offer. Eastern numbers still firm, some pushes reported at +70n for delivery by the 4^th, with neighboring dry mill having already paid up for volume in the mid-50s last week.

Beans

Soybean futures declined for a third straight session on Tuesday, with July (SN25) down 12 cents at $10.4675 and Nov (SX25) down 9.75 cents at $10.37. Forecasts for favorable Midwest weather, combining rain and warmer temperatures, are improving crop prospects and pressuring prices. Crop conditions remain stable, with 66% rated good-to-excellent, near last year’s 67% and above the 5-year average of 63%. Planting progress reached 96%, in line with last year but slightly below the average and expectations, leaving an estimated 2.3 million acres unplanted. Soybean oil weakness continues to weigh on crush margins, driven by unwinding oil share positions and increased liquidation ahead of July First Notice on June 30. Processor bids were mostly steady, though ADM raised its Decatur basis by 40 cents, reversing a recent drop. Board crush margins fell 4 cents to $1.44, now 18 cents below the June 17 high. Despite this, cash crush margins improved modestly in some areas. The CIF market held steady in a well-defined market, with July trading +74SN bid side. China continues to source heavily from South America, booking multiple cargoes from Brazil and Argentina. 

Wheat

Wheat markets continued to slide, with Chicago wheat now down 42 ½ cents from Friday’s high and KC off 40 ½ cents. Geopolitical tensions have eased following news of a tentative cease-fire agreement between Iran and Israel. EU wheat prices have also moved lower. Funds were estimated to be sellers of 12,000 wheat contracts the past two sessions. Wheat has lost ground relative to corn. The July wheat/corn spread closed at a $1.19 ½ premium to wheat, down from Friday’s high of $1.46 ¾. Weather has improved for harvest activity in the HRW region as well as the southern SRW regions. So far, the quality in SRW southern areas harvesting generally decent despite some of the heavy rain in late May. SRW cash markets had a weaker tone to start the week. Chicago spreads were mixed on the close. The WN/U spread closed at 16 ¼ cents carry but managed to trade 17 ¼ cents early.