Evening Comments (RJ O'Brien)

Evening Grain Comments - April 14th, 2025

Corn

Corn futures opened the trading week near Friday’s post-report highs but couldn’t sustain any momentum on weather outlook and lack of more bullish news to keep feeding the trend. CK finished 5’2 cts lower to 485, CN down 4’2 to 492’6 and CZ off 1’4 at 462. The USDA did give us an export flash of 120kmt of corn to Japan this morning and weekly export inspections of 72mbu was much higher than trade estimates of 39-63 mbu, with western hemisphere destinations taking the majority with total liftings of 40.1 mbu combined (Mexico 24.9 mbu, Colombia 5.1), Japan in for 10.44 mbu and other Asian destinations over 11mbu combined. Current YTD totals of 1476.8 mbu vs 1131.7 LY and nearly 60% of the USDA’s April-updated 2.550 bbu forecast with US still cheapest source CFR Asia with PNW 25-30c discount to Argy business for May/June until July when Brazil comes online. Brazil corn indications are dime-plus below last week’s levels after run-up of board price timed well with seasonal uptick in SAm farmer selling patterns. US corn planting is underway as planters were rolling on drive up I-55 this weekend from STL to central IL and much of corn belt has favorable planting conditions for next week before 8-14 day brings greater chance for moisture. Local central IL weather was windy last 48 hours but lots of spraying done Friday/Saturday, and chance for rainfall increases as week progresses with chance for wet Easter Sunday. 

Beans

Soybean futures started the week with a choppy, two-sided trading session. The US$ hit six-month lows but it wasn’t enough to keep beans in positive territory, at least in the old crop months. Ultimately nearby SK25 closed down a penny at 1041’6. New crop SX25 closed up 3’0 c/bu at 1028’4. Weekly export inspections for soybeans were reported at 20.1 mbu. That fell near the middle of the range of 14-28 mbu. EU was the largest taker at 4.67 mbu, followed closely by China at 4.5 mbu. China soybean imports in March fell to 17-year lows on tariff concerns and Brazilian harvest delays. Total imports for the month reached 3.5 MMT, down 36.8% from the same period last year. NOPA will release their March crush report tomorrow at 11 CDT. Average trade guess is 197 mbu, with a range of 193-202 mbu. Bias is slightly higher than the average on both crush and oil stocks. Bean basis firmed at several processors and river terminals on Monday. Farmers are selling sparingly as they turn their focus to spring planting efforts. May beans FOB IWDS pencil roughly 3 c/bu below DVE. SK/N firmed +1’6 to -8’4 carry. Traded as narrow at -6’4 Friday. New crop SX/F tucked in +0’4 to – 11’4 carry. Producers in parts of the Midwest should see some active planting progress this week. Planting progress was 2% this week vs 3% last year. 2% is the 5-year average. Above normal precip forecasted in the 8-14 day may mean the window is on the front-end. 

Wheat

The wheat markets started the week lower, as there’s growing optimism for rainfall in some of the drier HRW areas over the next week. Export inspections came in at 22.2 mbu, up from 12.3 mbu a week ago. This puts us just above the 21.1 mbu/week pace needed to reach the USDA estimate. The second week of crop ratings showed wheat at 47% G/E, down 1% from last week. Last year ratings were 55% G/E. Based on these ratings the ATI crop model has the winter wheat crop at 1.284 bbu (1.294 LW). HRW is 712 mbu (725 LW), SRW is 343 mbu  (unchanged from LW), and SWW is now estimated at 228 mbu (227 LW). Spring wheat planting was 7%, up 4% from last week. The 5-year average is 7%. The July Chicago wheat/corn spread made a new low, trading down to 63 cents. Chicago wheat spreads were choppy throughout the session and ended mixed. The K/N closed at 14 ¼ cents and the N/U settled at 14 ¾ cents. Conditions remain less than ideal, particularly in parts of the southern SRW region. If the spreads continue to widen, it may be worth considering orders to lock in around the 17-18 cent level. There’s also potential for the SRW carryout to tighten if we run into a crop production issue or see an uptick in feed demand this summer.