Evening Comments (RJ O'Brien)

Evening Grain Comments - February 19th, 2025

Corn

CH +5’6 at 502’0, CH/K -1’2 at -13’6, CK/N -0’2 at -2’6, CN/U +2’0 at 38’0, CU/Z +0’6 at 3’0, CZ/H +0’2 at -10’4. Brazil winter corn planting as of last Thursday per AgRural reached 36% in the center south region compared to 20% the prev week and 59% same period LY. Corn export liftings 63.4 mbu (highest of marketing year) vs. 50.9 BOY/wk. Diverse group of destinations from Mexico 18, Japan 10, S kor 8.2, EU 8.2, Africa 3.4, Middle East 2.6, and Columbia 2.6 mbu, while Taiwan only .3 (there was a 65k mt flash sale to them this morning), and China was absent. Milo only .13 mbu v. 3.9 BOY/wk. Higher board was met with steady selling and movement helped ease nearby corn spreads with just 8 more trading days left till Mar FND. 

Beans

Futures started out Monday night lower on favorable S. Am weather, but stronger corn/wheat markets lent support and helped bring the firmer close today. Cash markets were mostly quiet, with exception of front end Cif market firming 3-5c. This helped perk fob IWDS basis by same, but it remains 19c below DVE for Feb. March is 10c below DVE, May -15c and July -14c. 8 days till FND with the long futures hedger still out of position. Weekly bean exports fell 13 mbu from LW to 26.5 mbu vs 17 mbu needed for BOY. We shipped 40 mbu LW and 48 LY. Shipments were well scattered throughout various ports: PNW 2.6 mbu, Interior 5.3, S. Atl 4, N TXG 3.4 and C. Gulf 12.8.

Wheat

Wheat futures closed firmer on opening week Tuesday. HRS led the way with MWH +7 ¼ and MWU +7. KWH was +6 with KWN + 7 ¼. WH settled +4 ¾ with WN +4 ¾. The colder temps in the HRW belt helped buoy wheat higher as well as similar weather fears in Russia. HRS gets a bump as a likely acreage incentive. Export inspections of 9.2 mbu were below expectations and well below the 20.3 mbu needed weekly for USDA’s annual projection. SRW led the way at 2.6 mbu with Mixed Wheat at 2.5, HRS at 2.3, HRW at 1.1, Soft White at 600kbu and Durum at 100 kbu. HRW spreads again weakened as cash premiums can’t find energy. 

Brayden Miller

Broker Assistant

Advance Trading, Inc.