Evening Comments (RJ O'Brien)

Evening Grain Comments - March 18th, 2025

Corn

Seasonal maintenance, while still light, will build weekly and peak the 2^nd week of April. The tariff rhetoric has pulled volumes early aiding mgmt of extremely high inventories, and lastly good news from the Corp having Lockport lock & dam fixed by April 4^th will help Argo drain earlier than expected. Corn basis firmed a couple weeks ago in the east and  now more reports of strength from the west, both still checkered as farmer movement was good earlier in the year. End users may want to jump on July/Dec corn spread weakness as don't own much basis out there, and w/ basis in creepmode, spread falling, the risk/reward felt more tolerable today. Spot gross cash crush etoh fuel margins in ECB  gained .0367 and in 46^th percentile since 2009.  

Beans

Another rather quiet day in bean futures and more action in products. SK -2.75c, SMK - $4.40, BOK +.44. JPM put out 450 SBM certs with Citi stopping 330, was part of meal weakness today. Quiet day on farmer selling front. Cash bean markets continue to have a firm tone with 5-10c pushes noted at several western processor markets today. Nearby cif beans were 1-2c weaker, still inverted, but not offsetting the 80% inverse in BF. Spreads are marking time till we get more news or closer to next delivery period. Export market taking note of firmer Brz fob market over the past week, but not seeing any new business. Brz shipments have picked up nicely to 3.8 MMT LW taking MTD exports to 6.8 MMT +1.8 LY. ATI research noting the majority of Brz bean prod estimates they review are 170 MMT or higher, which will keep US export biz slow. S & P Global estimate for new crop acreage at 83.3 mln, -700k from USDA Forum and -3.8 mln from LY. ATI is using 84 mln acreage and a 567 mbu c/o. If we used S & P acreage our c/o would still be over 500 mbu. 

Trent Sauder

Wheat

HRW up 1, SRW dn 3 and HRS steady. Wheat/corn continues to firm with KN/CN closing at +151 up 40c w/w. Safe to say the market is watching wheat starting to emerge out of dormancy and would like to see a rain in the S US Plains and Black Sea. Rains are forecasted in the 6 – 10 day for France, otherwise, similarly to other N Hemi major production areas, the past 90-days in the EU has been dry. US export business is seeing a little life, as the world waits for new crop N Hemi production. Tomorrow starts the VSR observation period vs May. KC scales were steady. Old crop HRW basis overall remains stagnant. HRS saw 18 singles and 1 train for sale. HRS spot basis was steady with 14% at +200MK. Producers can start applying for ECAP tomorrow. The wheat payment will be $30.69/acre.